Four years later, Giants' foes still feeling the rush
Football Betting Lines
01/31/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It was perhaps the perfect game plan at the absolute perfect time.
While the New York Giants' ability to pull off what's considered one of greatest upsets in sports history, a 17-14 ousting of New England in Super Bowl XLII that thwarted the Patriots' quest for an unbeaten 2007 season, didn't come about because of just one single factor, there's no question that unexpected outcome wouldn't have transpired without the stellar performance of a defense that was at its bone-jarring best on the grand stage of Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium that fateful night.
New York stopped a Patriots offense that had set an NFL season scoring record that year dead in its tracks, limiting Tom Brady and a dangerous band of pass- catchers to its lowest point total of the campaign as well as an underwhelming 274 total yards. The Giants baffled and frustrated Brady with a relentless wave of pressure that resulted in five sacks, several hurried and off-target throws, and 45 bruised egos from an opponent seemingly on the verge of a landmark achievement.
"We had a lot of hits on [Brady]," recalled Giants defensive end Justin Tuck, who amassed two sacks and a forced fumble to lead the aggressive onslaught. "Even when we didn't hit him, he didn't have the time to sit back there and allow some of the routes to develop."
Fast forward four years, and the backdrop of Super Bowl XLVI will be remarkably similar to that memorable matchup. The Patriots bring a high-powered and pass- heavy offense expertly directed by the incredibly-precise Brady into Indianapolis for a revenge opportunity with an underdog New York squad that will once again possess one of the best pass rushes in the business.
At first glance, this edition of the Giants' defense doesn't appear quite as formidable as the one that accumulated a league-best 53 sacks prior to the team's successful run in the 2007 playoffs. The 2011 G-Men finished the regular season just 27th in total defense and a troubling 29th against the pass, having surrendered an average of 255.1 yards per game through the air.
The unit, now in its second year under the command of coordinator Perry Fewell, still created plenty of uncomfortable moments for enemy quarterbacks, however, tying for third in the NFL with a total of 48 sacks.
Both defenses featured a trio of high-impact players on the front line, with the outstanding combo of Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and perennial Pro Bowler Michael Strahan serving as the catalyst for the 2007 incarnation. Strahan retired following the Super Bowl win, but ultra-athletic young end Jason Pierre-Paul has emerged as a force in his second season alongside the two established holdovers.
Umenyiora, Tuck and Strahan combined for 32 sacks during the 2007 regular season, with this year's "Big Three" of Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora and Tuck compiling 30 1/2 quarterback takedowns prior to the playoffs. Umenyiora missed seven games with injuries to both his knee and ankle, however, and Tuck was sidelined for four contests earlier in the year because of a neck problem.
The crew finally got back to full strength for the season's stretch run, and their presence has certainly been felt. The Giants have piled up 20 sacks over the course of the five-game winning streak they'll carry into Super Bowl XLVI, while yielding a scant 13.4 points per outing over that span.
Umenyiora has in particular made a difference, with the disruptive end having recorded 5 1/2 sacks in four games since returning from a month-long absence for the pivotal Week 17 finale against Dallas.
"We have some good pass rushers. But Osi, he's a game changer," said Tuck, who came through with 1 1/2 sacks in the Giants' narrow overtime triumph over San Francisco in the NFC Championship. "He takes a lot of pressure off myself, the whole D-line, the whole defense, knowing that any play he can make one of those game changing plays."
New York's resurgent defense could be facing its toughest challenge to date, however, in the potent Patriots. When the teams squared off at New England's Gillette Stadium back in Week 9 of the regular season (a 24-20 Giants win), Brady threw for 342 yards and two scores while the Pats' top two receivers -- slot specialist Wes Welker and All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski -- had 237 yards and 17 catches between them.
The Giants only managed two sacks of Brady that day, though they did intercept the two-time league MVP twice. With this latest clash set to take place in the offensively-conducive conditions of the domed Lucas Oil Stadium, Tuck knows his team must bring the heat more consistently this time if it's to repeat its previous Super Bowl exploits.
"The way to kill the snake is to take off his head," said Tuck. "The way to kill an offense as potent as that one is making sure you take care of Brady. Our defensive front will put a lot of pressure on itself to make sure that we do our best to get after him."
Below is a capsule look at the defense of the New York Giants, with regular season stats in parentheses:
Defensive Ends: Fewell is blessed with an embarrassment of riches at this position, with Tuck (37 tackles, 5 sacks) and Umenyiora (25 tackles, 9 sacks) each having posted three double-digit sack seasons in their careers and rising star Pierre Paul (86 tackles, 16.5 sacks) actually outplaying both veterans in a banner sophomore campaign that earned the 2010 first-round pick first team All-Pro honors. The 23-year-old's 16 1/2 sacks were the most by a Giant since Strahan produced 18 1/2 in 2003, and he also had a safety and blocked a field goal in addition to being one of the team's best run defenders.
Defensive Tackles: The headliner of New York's interior players is seventh-year vet Chris Canty (47 tackles, 4 sacks), a high-priced free-agent addition from the rival Cowboys in 2009 who helped justify his lofty salary by setting career bests for both tackles and sacks. Youngster Linval Joseph (34 tackles, 2 sacks), a second-round choice in the 2010 draft, started 15 games at the other tackle spot and was predictably inconsistent, though the 323-pound space-eater did display flashes in his first extended action as a pro. With the Patriots certainly to air it out often on Super Bowl Sunday, look for Tuck and energetic reserve Dave Tollefson (21 tackles, 5 sacks) to kick inside on passing downs in order to get the Giants' best rushers on the field together.
Linebackers: The Giants received solid years from the outside tandem of Michael Boley (93 tackles, 1 sack) and converted end Mathias Kiwanuka (84 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT), an Indianapolis native who can also pressure the passer as well as provide sound run support, but lacked a reliable starter in the middle for much of the season. That spot has since been bolstered by the re-signing of Chase Blackburn (26 tackles, 1 INT), a member of New York's Super Bowl XLII outfit who was out of football prior to being brought back in late November. Boley and rookie Jacquian Williams (78 tackles, 1 sack), a seventh-round find in this past draft, are the club's fastest linebackers who both play vital roles in coverage, meaning each may draw the important assignments of shadowing New England's terrific tight end duo of Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Cornerbacks: The experience of regulars Corey Webster (51 tackles, 6 INT, 16 PD) and Aaron Ross (60 tackles, 4 INT, 12 PD) should come in handy for this game, as both were starters on the 2007 defense that successfully slowed down Brady and his arsenal of weapons in Super Bowl XLII. The combo also accounted for half of the Giants' 20 interceptions in 2011, with Webster -- New York's top cover man who held big-play receiver Randy Moss mostly in check in the last championship showdown against New England -- establishing a new career high in that category.
Safeties: New York is quite battle-tested on the back end as well. Nickel defender Deon Grant (64 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is in his 12th NFL season and faced the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII while with Carolina in 2003, while free safety Antrel Rolle (96 tackles, 2 INT) competed on Arizona's Super Bowl XLIII team in 2008. Fourth-year pro Kenny Phillips (82 tackles, 4 INT, 11 PD) is the youngest member of the group but also the steadiest, and the hard- hitting former first-round pick has developed a reputation as an enforcer with good ball skills to boot. Fewell will often deploy all three together in passing situations, and Grant had an interception and two passes defensed in November's win over New England.
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<< Flood rises to top job at Rutgers
Piscataway, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rutgers has named Kyle Flood as its new head
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Flood was given the job on an interim basis last week when Schiano decided to
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Lopez, Kohlschreiber win openers in France >>
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Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Union exercised their option
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Mayweather picked to beat De La Hoya
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA -- Golden Boy Oscar De La Hoya and his rival Floyd Mayweather Jr. arrived at the MGM Grand here Wednesday amid the pomp and pandemonium befitting two of the biggest stars in the sport who are about to duke it out for the WBC super welterweight crown this Saturday (Sunday in Manila).
As of Wednesday, MySportsbook.com closed its book with Mayweather a favorite to defeat De La Hoya at -170 (a $100 bet wins $70), while De La Hoya is a +140 underdog (a $100 bet wins $140).
Mayweather arrived at about 11:30 a.m. on a big truck with his face and a big "World's Best Pound-for-Pound" sign scribbled across the vehicle. He was accompanied by his entourage made up of rappers and his training team.
A crowd of close to 3,000 eager fans packed the MGM Grand lobby, with their cameras in tow, all trying to vie for position to get a good angle at Mayweather, who is acknowledged as the world's best fighter pound-for-pound.
Eric Gomez, Golden Boy Promotions vice-president, described the fan turnout as "amazing" and swore he had never seen anything quite like this event.
"The crowd was fantastic. Everybody was just too eager to see the two fighters," said ALA manager Michael Aldeguer, who was among those who waited at the lobby together with his ward Rey "Boom Boom" Bautista and AJ Banal.
De La Hoya made his own grand entrance at the hotel lobby at around 12:30 p.m. accompanied by GBP chief executive officer Richard Schaefer and trainer Freddie Roach.
The same group of fans who trooped to see Mayweather also lingered around to get a close look at De La Hoya, who has been secretly working out at a Las Vegas gym for days after arriving from his main training camp in Puerto Rico.
The golden boy then took part in a closed-door afternoon workout with Bautista and Banal. The two, along with Aldeguer and wife Christine, as well as an HBO crew were the only ones allowed inside the gym.
De La Hoya and Mayweather take part in today's final press conference before the official weigh-in this Friday.
Ring Magazine, the acknowledged bible of boxing, reported in its June 2007 issue that 12 out of 20 boxing experts it interviewed have favored Mayweather to defeat De la Hoya, with only 8 favoring the latter.
But Filipino ring icon Manny Pacquiao said in a recent interview with The Freeman's Emmanuel Villaruel that De La Hoya will win by unanimous decision over Mayweather.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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