Lee goes for Rangers in opener with A's
Baseball Betting Lines
07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee only has one victory since joining the Rangers by way of a trade, but the club is expecting many more down the road.
Lee will try to build off that win this evening when Texas begins a three-game series versus the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Lee went 0-1 over his first two starts since being acquired from Seattle despite going nine innings in each of outing. He gave up eight runs in that span while only getting three runs of support, but the Rangers matched that total on Thursday versus the Angels to get Lee a 3-2 win.
The 31-year-old left-hander scattered two runs and five hits over 8 1/3 innings, giving him a 3.42 earned run average in three starts with Texas and a 9-4 mark with a 2.56 ERA in 16 total 2010 starts.
"Any time you get that deep into the game, and give the team a chance, you have to feel good about it," said Lee.
Lee also improved to 5-4 with a 6.60 ERA in nine career starts at Rangers Ballpark and is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA lifetime versus the Athletics.
Lee gave the Rangers a victory in the opener of a key four-game set with the Angels last week. The series went Texas' way as Sunday's 6-4 win allowed them to take three out of four and leave the series with a seven-game lead over Los Angeles in the American League West standings.
Josh Hamilton had three hits and drove in three runs on Sunday, while Nelson Cruz and Michael Young each had two hits and an RBI. Cruz extended his hitting streak to 14 games, hitting .414 (24-for-58) in that timeframe with a pair of homers and 14 RBI.
"I was happy with our effort. We came out and played hard all four nights," Young said. "That's what we've been doing real well."
Tommy Hunter improved to 8-0 on the season after holding Los Angeles to three runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings.
Texas will begin a nine-game road trip on Friday versus the Angels, but first they must deal with an Oakland club that has won nine of its last 11 games. The Athletics took two of three versus the White Sox over the weekend, winning Sunday's finale, 6-4.
In his second start since a disabled list stint due to an elbow injury, Dallas Braden gave up three runs over 6 1/3 innings to win for the first time in 10 starts (0-5) since his perfect game back on May 9.
"A lot of things seem to get lost in that stretch ... People forget I threw a complete game after [my perfect game]. People forget about that because the win-loss [record] is so glaring," Braden said.
Kurt Suzuki, who signed a four-year contract extension on Friday, drove in three runs for Oakland and is batting .412 (14-for-34) over his last nine games with a homer and six RBI.
The A's will look to keep rolling tonight behind Gio Gonzalez, who has won back-to-back starts and is 3-1 over his last four outings.
After throwing seven innings of one-run ball versus the Royals on July 16, the 24-year-old southpaw was charged with four runs, seven hits and two walks over six frames of a 6-4 triumph over Boston on Wednesday.
Gonzalez is 9-6 with a 3.75 ERA this year and 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in four career games versus the Rangers, two of those starts. That loss came in Texas on May 12, as he gave up four runs on nine hits over four innings.
These two clubs have split six meetings so far this year, with the Rangers taking two of three at home from May 11-13.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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