Padres try to string back-to-back wins together against LA
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09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After finally being able to end a potentially-costly 10- game skid on Monday, the San Diego Padres will try to start up a winning streak behind their best pitcher when the National League West leaders resume a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at Petco Park.
San Diego had been mired in its longest winless drought since registering a franchise-record 13 straight losses from May 8-21, 1994, and the slide had cut the team's once-comfortable lead atop the NL West down to a single game over hard-charging San Francisco. The Padres were able to get back on track at the expense of the fading Dodgers, however, coming through with a much-needed 4-2 victory in last night's opener.
The Padres still remained just one game up on the Giants, though, after San Francisco defeated Arizona on Monday. The two clubs will square off in a pivotal four-game set in San Diego beginning on Thursday.
Nick Hundley went 2-for-3 with a homer and two RBI to pace San Diego offensively last night, while the Padres used seven different pitchers to keep the Dodgers' offense under wraps. Mike Adams (3-1) was credited with the win after throwing 1 2/3 scoreless innings of relief, with closer Heath Bell striking out two in a perfect ninth to notch his 38th save.
"I think there was a big exhale," Padres manager Bud Black said. "But again I think our guys know they have to prepare for another game. They know what month we're in."
Tim Stauffer worked the first four innings in an emergency start for San Diego and held Los Angeles to one run on four hits. The swingman was filling in for ace Mat Latos, who was scratched just hours before the game due to a stomach flu.
Latos is scheduled to take the ball tonight, which could bode well for the Padres' chances of remaining in first place. The talented youngster has yielded two runs or fewer in each of his last 14 starts and amassed an 8-1 record with a stellar 1.51 earned run average over that span. He's struck out an impressive 104 batters in 89 1/3 innings during that time period as well.
The 22-year-old hasn't won in either of his past two starts, but was able to keep the Padres in both games before they eventually lost. The right-hander held Philadelphia to one run in a seven-inning no-decision on August 27, then permitted one run and four hits while fanning 10 Arizona hitters in just six innings against the Diamondbacks this past Wednesday.
Latos, whose 2.25 ERA for the season is tops in the NL at the moment, hasn't had much luck in past matchups with the Dodgers as well. He's 0-2 in three lifetime starts against Los Angeles despite an overall ERA of 3.21, and was handed a tough 2-1 loss at Dodger Stadium on August 3 after surrendering a pair of runs in six innings.
He'll be taking on a Los Angeles squad that lost for the seventh time in nine games last night and failed to capitalize on their scoring chances in Monday's setback. The Dodgers ended the night 1-for-8 with men in scoring position and stranded two baserunners in each inning between the fourth and seventh.
"Opportunities get away, and there's not much more to add to that," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said afterward. "We had nine hits and some situations we didn't deliver."
Los Angeles also didn't get much out of starting pitcher Vicente Padilla (6-5), with the veteran lasting only four innings and allowing three runs on five hits to take the loss.
Torre will be counting on a longer outing from Clayton Kershaw, who'll be out to stop a string of three straight winless starts when he opposes Latos tonight. The hard-throwing southpaw has posted a 2.84 ERA during that stretch, however, and struck out a total of 28 batters in just 19 innings over those three games as well.
Kershaw fanned 11 Philadelphia hitters in six innings last Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park, but was stuck with the loss in a 5-1 verdict after giving up a pair of runs. Five days earlier, the former first-round pick limited Colorado to one run over six frames but didn't factor in the decision of his team's 6-2 win.
The 22-year-old has been tough on the Padres this year, however, permitting only two runs and 10 hits over a combined 14 1/3 innings in a pair of victories over tonight's opponent. He's 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA in nine career encounters with San Diego and sports a 2.08 lifetime ERA at Petco Park.
Los Angeles has won seven of its 13 meetings with the Padres this season and are 4-3 in games played between the teams in San Diego in 2010.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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