Baseball Betting

Pavin joins Langer in lead at Carnoustie

Golf Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - Carnoustie, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin shot his second straight two-under 69 on Friday to join Bernhard Langer atop the leaderboard after the second round of the Senior British Open Championship.

Pavin and Langer, a first-round co-leader who carded an even-par 71 on Friday, finished 36 holes at four-under 138 at Carnoustie.

Former Masters champion Ian Woosnam shared low round of the day honors on Friday with a four-under 67. He vaulted into a tie for third place with Dan Forsman (71), Larry Mize (70) and Jay Haas (69). The group is knotted at minus-three.

Mark Calcavecchia, the 1989 British Open champion who is making his third Champions Tour start, posted his second straight one-under 70 on Friday and is alone in seventh at two-under 140.

Tom Watson, a five-time British Open winner and three-time Senior Open champion, posted an even-par 71 and moved into a tie for 24th place at plus- three.

They are chasing a pair of major champions from their days on the PGA Tour, but a duo who has yet to break through in one of the big five events on the Champions Tour.

Pavin, a tour rookie, started well enough with five consecutive pars. He broke into red figures with a birdie at the par-five sixth, his second in as many rounds at the 565-yard hole.

He closed with three straight pars, but went on a mini run to start the back nine. Pavin birdied his first two holes of the second side and reached six- under par when he birdied the par-three 16th.

Pavin found trouble at the par-four closing hole. Pavin, never one of the longest hitters in the game, hooked a five-wood approach shot out of bounds. He walked off with a double-bogey that cost him sole possession of first place.

"I played pretty solidly today," said Pavin. "Wish I could take that shot over on 18. I was pleased with the day - I played well. I had a few times when I put myself in a little bit of trouble, but extricated myself and made some good par putts coming in and a nice birdie on 16."

Langer, like Pavin, started decently with five straight pars on Friday. He hit a five-iron to 50 feet with his second at the par-five sixth and two-putted for birdie.

He made it two in a row thanks to a seven-footer at No. 7. Langer got it to six-under par for the championship and was in the lead with Pavin in the clubhouse, but, like almost everyone in the field, the back nine tripped up Langer.

The German Hall of Famer came undone on the two back-nine par threes at Carnoustie. He landed in a pot bunker at the 13th en route to a bogey, then three-putted from off the green at No. 16 for his second bogey of the second round.

Those two hiccups cost Langer first, but he was satisfied with his performance on Friday.

"Overall, I'm pretty pleased," said Langer, a 10-time winner on the Champions Tour, including two victories in 2010. "There's no real birdie hole or easy hole. This course can get you on any hole. The wind was really blowing all day. It made links golf that much harder."

First-round co-leader Jay Don Blake struggled to a three-over 74 on Friday and fell into a tie for eighth place with 2008 runner-up John Cook (72) and Russ Cochran (71). The trio is knotted at one-under 141.

NOTES: Pavin won the 1995 U.S. Open and Langer captured the Masters in 1985 and 1993...The third first-round co-leader Carl Mason, who is tied for most wins in European Senior Tour history with 23, shot a five-over 76 and fell into a tie for 13th at plus-one...Defending champion Loren Roberts is also one-over par...The 36-hole cut fell at seven-over 149 and Chip Beck, Craig Stadler and Sandy Lyle missed the mark.


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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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