Stricker hangs on to win at Riviera
Golf Betting Lines
02/07/2010 - Pacific Palisades, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After entering the final round with a six-stroke lead, Steve Stricker managed a one-under 70 Sunday to win the Northern Trust Open by two strokes.
Stricker, who had led by seven late in the third round, which was completed earlier Sunday, completed his eighth PGA Tour title at 16-under-par 268.
With the victory, Stricker moved past Phil Mickelson to become the No. 2 ranked player in the world rankings.
"It feels great. I remember where I was and where I am now, you know, it doesn't get any better," said Stricker, who collected $1,152,000 for the victory. "That was hard today. I aged a lot out there today. It was a grind from the get go."
Luke Donald twice got within two of Stricker's lead, but could not get any closer. The Englishman closed with a five-under 66 at Riviera Country Club to take second at minus-14.
J.B. Holmes (67) and first-round leader Dustin Johnson (66) shared third place at 13-under-par 271.
Mickelson entered as the two-time defending champion, but never threaten on the weekend. He closed with a two-over 73 to share 45th at two-under-par 282.
Twelve players finished their third round earlier Sunday. Friday's second round was pushed into Saturday by rain causing the delay in the middle rounds.
Stricker parred the first three holes before missing the green on the par- three fourth. That led to a bogey dropping Stricker to 14-under. He led by three, but Donald was making a charge.
Donald got off to a fast start with birdies on one and three. He poured in a six-foot birdie try on the fifth to get within two at 12-under.
However, Stricker made a run in the middle of the round that gave him a four- stroke cushion. At the eighth, Stricker rolled in a birdie effort from five feet and made it two in a row with a nine-footer on the ninth.
Stricker moved to 17-under with a birdie putt from just inside 13 feet on the par-five 11th. Donald also birdied the 11th and was four back.
Both Stricker and Donald faltered to bogeys on the par-four 12th. Donald got back within three with a four-foot birdie putt on the 13th. The Englishman narrowed the gap to two with a short birdie putt on 17.
Stricker scrambled down the stretch as he missed two of five greens between 13 and 17, but got up and down for par both times. The other three holes he two- putted for par to maintain his lead.
At the last, Donald had a birdie effort from 31 feet, but came up short. Stricker had three putts for the win, but took just two as he two-putted for par for the third straight hole to seal the victory.
"I didn't make birdie on No. 1 and made bogey on No. 4 and kind of let some other players into the tournament," Stricker said. "I knew it was going to be tough today. I am not too familiar with having a six-shot lead too many times, so I knew it was going to be hard. I just tried to grind it out.
"I didn't hit it the greatest, but at times my short game saved me and my putting saved me a few times too."
Donald was denied his first win since the 2006 Honda Classic.
"I tried to keep making good swings and give myself birdie chances. Obviously, I missed a couple of chances on six and seven, but I can't really complain," Donald said. "I hit a lot of quality shots and made Steve think about it a little. There is no one more annoyed. I haven't been in the winner's circle coming up on four years now. I feel like I am good enough to be there."
Paul Goydos (65), Steve Marino (68), George McNeill (69) and Andres Romero (70) shared fifth place at 10-under-par 274. Ricky Barnes was one stroke back at minus-nine after closing with back-to-back 69s.
NOTES: Goydos led a list of five players, that also included Jason Bohn, Marc Leishman, Webb Simpson and K.J. Choi, to shoot 65 in the final round...Johnson will defend his title next week at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
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heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
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So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
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