World Cup 2010 Preview: Greece searching for first World Cup win
Soccer Betting Lines
05/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are not too many teams in this summer's World Cup with less history than Greece.
But there also aren't too many countries whose manager means more to their success than Otto Rehhagel.
Outside of Denmark's Morten Olsen, Rehhagel will be the longest-tenured coach in South Africa, and since taking over in 2001, he has taken the Greek national team to new heights.
Prior to the arrival of the 71-year-old German, Greece had qualified for one World Cup, which came in 1994.
However, Rehhagel forever cemented his place in Greek soccer history by leading the team to a stunning 1-0 victory over Portugal in the final of Euro 2004.
He came under some pressure from the Greek federation after failing to guide Greece to the 2006 World Cup, and a disappointing showing at Euro 2008 didn't help the situation.
But Rehhagel is adored by Greek fans and players alike, and if he can lead the country to its first win in World Cup competition, his legacy will grow even larger.
Greece went 0-3 back in 1994, and was outscored 10-0 in losses to Argentina, Bulgaria and Nigeria.
And ironically enough, both Argentina and Nigeria will be part of their group again this time around.
South Korea makes up the fourth team in Group B, and outside of Argentina, it is anyone's guess as to who will be the second team to advance.
Striker Theofanis Gekas will have a big say in how far this team goes after leading all of Europe with 10 goals in qualification.
Angelos Charisteas, who scored the winning goal in the Euro 2004 final, figures to join Gekas in handling the scoring duties, but the strength of this team is still in defense.
Greece finished second in its UEFA qualifying group and needed to beat Ukraine in a two-legged playoff to reach the World Cup, which it did in large part to a pair of clean sheets while scoring one goal in the second leg.
The back line will be anchored by Liverpool's Sotirios Kyrgiakos, who logged the most minutes in qualification for Greece, while the versatile Vassilis Torosidis can play as a fullback or in midfield, giving Rehhagel options.
Giorgias Karagounis has enjoyed a successful career that has included stops at Inter Milan and Benfica, and at 33, he will provide leadership and toughness in midfield.
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been 28 years since Honduras last took part in the World Cup and, after qualifying in dramatic fashion this time around, manager Reinaldo Rueda's team is eyeing a spot in the knockout round for the
<< World Cup 2010 Preview: Paraguay tries to hit new heights
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paraguay is coming off of its best-ever
performance in World Cup qualifying, finishing just one point behind Brazil,
and is poised to make its deepest-ever run in the World Cup.
Making its fourth co
<< Zach Thomas to call it quits as a Dolphin
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins have scheduled a Thursday
press conference, at which time it is expected that former linebacker Zach
Thomas will announce his retirement.
According to the Miami Herald, Thomas will s
<< World Cup 2010 Preview: Denmark capable of deep run
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denmark features one of the most
experienced cores in the world, led by captain Jon Dahl Tomasson and his 107
international appearances, but 22-year-old Nicklas Bendtner could ultimately
determi
<< The Great Wall of Washington: NBA Mock Draft v. 1.0
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA Draft Lottery would be a lot of fun
if it wasn't so much work.
It's like the NBA's version of a cotillion. Everyone gets dressed in their
Sunday best for a catered affair at the NBA Entertainment S
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Man on Campus at Grambling State also owns the Big Smile on Campus. "I have a cheesy smile, like a big, big gullible smile. Everybody is always talking about it," defensive tackle Christian Anthony
Flyers' Carter takes next step in injury comeback >>
MONTREAL (AP) -Philadelphia's Jeff Carter has taken part in his first full team practice since breaking his right foot last month, but general manager Paul Holmgren says it's too early to tell when the forward can return in the playoffs.Holmgren was
Turner, Wall already in tight competition >>
CHICAGO (AP) -Evan Turner and John Wall could have some explosive matchups when they meet in the NBA. The one playing out at the moment is pretty intense, too.The Washington Wizards won the draft lottery Tuesday, and now they have a decision to make
Packers sign former Texas Tech standout QB Harrell >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers signed quarterback
Graham Harrell to an undisclosed contract on Thursday.
After an illustrious career as Texas Tech's signal-caller, Harrell was not
selected in the 2009 NFL D
Blanc will replace France coach Domenech after Cup >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Laurent Blanc will replace Raymond Domenech
as manger of France following the 2010 World Cup.
Blanc left Bordeaux following the end of the Ligue 1 season last weekend and,
despite having a contract with t
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.