Rookies to go head-to-head in Mets-Nationals clash
Baseball Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Washington Nationals already looking ahead to next year -- and maybe even 2012 given Stephen Strasburg's need for Tommy John surgery -- a couple of young players are looking to show the team they can contribute.
No one has been better at that than Danny Espinosa.
The former 2008 third-round pick will aim to show his stuff again tonight, when the Nationals shoot for a season-high fourth straight win in the middle contest of a three-game set with the New York Mets at Nationals Park.
Expected to be Washington's everyday second baseman as early as next season, the 23-year-old made the start at shortstop in Monday's opener and went 4- for-5 with a pair of homers, including a sixth-inning grand slam, and six RBI in a 13-3 rout of New York.
Through five games since his September call-up, Espinosa is 9-for-16 with three homers and 10 RBI.
"These are big weeks for me," Espinosa said. "I just want to play well, play hard and I feel if I stay within myself and play my game, things will go my way."
Ivan Rodriguez added three RBI and Roger Bernadina scored three times for the Nationals, who have won a season high-tying three straight for the second time in less than two weeks.
The Nationals, though, did lose outfielder Willie Harris in the third inning after he crashed hard into the wall trying to make a catch. He came out of the game due to dizziness and is day-to-day.
Josh Thole drove in two runs for the Mets, who have lost six of eight on a 10- game road trip. Mike Pelfrey was tagged for six runs on five hits with three walks over 3 2/3 innings to take the loss.
"We had a 3-0 lead and he was kind of cruising and then kind of lost it," Mets manager Jerry Manuel said of his starter. "Mike Pelfrey is still a young pitcher. He's going to be a tremendous pitcher at some point in his career. I think he'll soon be a guy that will be counted on as someone that you know what you're going to get from him every time out."
Given that both teams are out of the playoff race, it isn't surprising that a pair of starters will be making their major league debuts in this game.
For the Mets, Dillon Gee steps in for an injured Johan Santana, who left his last start on Thursday after five innings due to a pectoral muscle strain.
"It's recommended that he skip this start," Manuel said of Santana on New York's website. "He wants to pitch, he feels like he can pitch through it, but I don't feel it's worth it to push him at this particular time. It's not in the best interest of the organization to push him at this particular point."
Gee, a 24-year-old righty, was 13-8 with a 4.96 earned run average with Triple-A Buffalo and led the International League with 165 strikeouts.
His counterpart tonight is 29-year-old Cuban Yuneski Maya, who signed a four- year deal with the Nationals on July 31 and gave up two runs -- one earned -- over 10 1/3 innings and two starts with Triple-A Syracuse.
The right-hander pitched in the World Baseball Classic in both 2006 and '09 and won Cuba's version of the Cy Young Award during his final season with Pinar Del Rio Vegueros after going 13-4 with a 2.22 ERA and seven complete games.
"I felt good in the minors," Maya told Washington's website. "My arm is at 100 percent, and I feel really good. It's a hard league in Triple-A, with a lot of veteran hitters that are pretty selective. I faced pretty tough hitters, but I felt pretty good."
The Nationals have won eight of 13 versus the Mets this year, including four of seven in Washington.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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